MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions for Monday 4/29

Twins vs. White Sox

Monday, April 29, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Garrett Crochet Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122, FanDuel)

By Cody Goggin

Garrett Crochet has been one of the White Sox's lone bright spots this season. The 24-year-old lefty has flashed ace potential through this first month of the season and appears to have some of the best stuff in the league.

Crochet has a Stuff+ mark of 110, ranking 15th among qualified MLB pitchers. He has struck out 32% of batters this season, the third-highest rate in the majors.

He has gotten a bit unlucky this year, as his 6.37 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. The underlying metrics are much better, as he's posted a 2.59 xERA, a 3.02 xFIP, and a 4.12 FIP.

What has bitten Crochet this season has been cluster luck. He has a strand rate of just 55.9%, the lowest in the league among qualified starters.

He ranks in the 19th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed. Still, he also ranks above average in barrel rate and average exit velocity allowed, so it doesn’t appear we should expect Crochet to get pounded going forward.

Crochet ranks in the 89th percentile in fastball velocity and the 94th percentile in fastball spin rate, which has led to his 76th percentile Whiff rate.

I expect him to have better batted-ball luck in the future and to look like one of the league's best pitchers.

On Monday, his opponent will be the Minnesota Twins, who have struck out at the eighth-highest rate in baseball this season. They rank seventh in wRC+ and 12th in wOBA, so this won’t be the easiest matchup.

Still, Crochet has been great this year, and we should see his luck turn around soon.

Therefore, I like Crochet over 5.5 strikeouts tonight. He has electric stuff, and as long as he can go deep enough into the game, he should be able to eclipse this total with ease.

I have him projected for an average of 6.63 strikeouts with a median of 6, so I like taking this over at -118 and would bet it to -150.

Pick: Garrett Crochet Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

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Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Monday, April 29, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Diamondbacks ML (+116, FanDuel)

By Ray Monohan

Arizona is struggling to start the season.

Still, the Diamondbacks recently completed a 10-game road trip with a win over the Mariners on Sunday. They should be excited to see the friendly confines of Chase Field.

Southpaw starting pitcher Tommy Henry takes the mound on Monday after posting his best start of the season six days ago. He allowed only one earned run on five hits across six innings against the Cardinals. He mixed plenty of off-speed pitches, keeping the St. Louis hitters off-balance.

I expect Henry to do more of the same on Monday against the Dodgers.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers counter with fellow southpaw starting pitcher James Paxton, who has escaped the fifth inning only once in four starts this season.

The Dodgers lost on Sunday. They've shown they're an excellent baseball team but have flaws and can go cold.

Paxton is a pitch-to-contact lefty, and the Snakes should have success against him.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+116)

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

James Paxton Under 15.5 Outs (-150, Bet365)

By Jim Turvey

Paxton is sporting a nifty 2.61 ERA, but he's a ticking time bomb.

He has the second-lowest Pitching+ mark among starting pitchers this season (min. 10 IP). His xERA, FIP and xFIP are all well above five. He boasts the highest FIP-ERA of any MLB starting pitcher this year. He also has the worst strikeout minus walk rate among all starting pitchers this year (min. 10 IP).

On Monday, he draws an Arizona lineup that crushes southpaws, leading MLB in wRC+ against the side (139). This has been driven a bit by BABIP, but even still, the Snakes boast the highest slugging percentage and the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers.

There are various ways to fade Paxton, and I like them all (Arizona's first five moneyline; Paxton over for his hits and runs allowed), but my favorite is the outs under.

He's gone under in three of four games this season, even as is, and the Dodgers are smart enough to know just how dangerous this outing could be, so I don't expect a very long leash.

I would play this to -225.

Pick: James Paxton Under 15.5 Outs (-150)

Pirates vs. Athletics

Monday, April 29, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160, Bet365)

By Jim Turvey

It's easy to miss players having mini breakouts for the A's, but that's precisely what's happening with Oakland's second-year outfielder.

Just look at these jumps from 2023 to 2024 on Esteury Ruiz's Statcast page:

• Barrel Rate: 2.5% to 12.0%
• Exit Velocity: 82.7 mph to 90.5 mph
• Launch angle: 9.9 degrees to 21.5 degrees
• xSLG: .316 to .486
• Hard hit rate: 20.0% to 48.0%

He's also doubled his walk rate without moving his strikeout rate and nearly halved his ground ball rate. It's not the most significant sample in the world, but it appears that his brief stint in the minors this year has helped.

On Monday night, he draws Brady Falter, who is far from a stud on the mound (in the bottom three percent of all pitchers in baseball by Stuff+) and, more importantly, is left-handed.

Even last season, when Ruiz was a pedestrian hitter (as seen above), he did pretty well against lefties. He had a 106 wRC against southpaws, compared to 78 against righties. These platoon splits have been consistent throughout his career.

There are various ways to play Ruiz on Monday (ironically, I wouldn't choose stolen bases, which he is most known for because of Falter's excellence against the run game).

Still, my favorite is to stick to what he can best control: total bases.

I would play Over 1.5 to +120.

Pick: Esteury Ruiz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+160)

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